The Fuse Has Been Lit In The Arab World

By Semperpapa

The events of the last few weeks are shedding a light on the dangerous volatility of the Arab world.

In the North African country of Tunisia, the despotic president Zine El Abidine Ben Ali was ousted after 23 years of heavy handed power holding. He and his family had to quickly leave that country and seek political asylum in Saudi Arabia.

In another North African country, Egypt, violent protest has hit the streets, much inspired by the Tunisian events. Egyptian president Hosni Mubarek is under pressure from an increasingly restless population to step down and allow more democratic policies to take hold in the country.

Mubarek has been in power for 30 years, holding highly controversial elections occasionally and stifling opposition in totalitarian manner.

The people in Egypt, again inspired by the events in Tunisia, grew increasingly angry about the demonstrated attempts of Mubarek to manipulate the political system in order to place his son Gamal into the power succession. Gamal Mubarek and his family fled Egypt for London, as the unrest is becoming more violent

International opinion in the West is voicing its opinion regarding the events in Tunis and Cairo, hopeful for a more democratic political system taking hold and possibly spreading to other Arab countries. But the unrest in the streets, the violence of the security forces against demonstrators is also sparking a call for restrain by the European Community and even the White House and State Department.

I also am hopeful for a greater democratization of the countries in the Arab world, but I am also more pessimistic than not.

My pessimism is based on the Arab culture as we witness it. In Davos, Switzerland, the Arab League met on Wednesday, and the issue of the Tunisian and Egyptian events was taken up in a close doors session.

Some comments about the events have been addressed by members, one specifically, who wanted to keep his statement anonymous, said that democracy is not part of the Arab culture, because said culture is based on tribalism and patriarchal traditions.

The main causes of the unrest in Tunisia, and consequentially in Egypt, are that the population is affected by economic disaster, with high unemployment and high poverty level.

The regimes there have maintained an iron fist upon the people, silencing opposition and openly gathering personal fortunes in the face of abject poverty. In effects, both regimes in Tunis and Cairo have been totalitarian and heavily centralized.

Some of the representatives in Davos declared that the lack of small business empowerment is drastically affecting the economic potential of Arab countries. Formal education may be wide spread among their citizens, many having studied in the United States and Europe, but many are swallowed up by government careers at the expenses of the private sector.

On a side note, considering the direction the Obama administration has been taking the country, the high unemployment, the increase level of citizens living at poverty level, we should take notice of international events. But the news coverage is sparse at best.

There is a major danger, though, in what we are witnessing in the Arab world. Public unrest and the taking down of the leadership have the potential to create a power vacuum in those countries, possibly opening the door for fundamental Islamists filling the vacuum.

Already reports have shown up that with the fall of the Tunisian government, an amnesty for all political undesirable has been actuated. One of those who have benefited from the amnesty is Rached Ghannouchi, leader of Tunisia's Islamic party Ennahda. Ghannouchi is planning to return to Tunis from his exile in London. And he is a supporter of Sharia law.

So does this mean that the Islamic party will be part of filling the power vacuum? And does it mean that the pro-West posture of Tunisia will revert back to radical Islam?

Only time will answer those questions.

Another reason for my pessimism is what we are witnessing happening in Lebanon.

Just last week the government of that country fell after the representatives of Hezbollah declared their vote of no-confidence in the government of Prime Minister Saad Hariri.

Hariri is the son of the former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, who was assassinated in 2005.

That assassination has been linked to the Syrian government and the departure of the Hezbollah political contingent from the current government is attributed by the current Prime Minister support for a United Nation backed investigation that is preparing to bring indictments for the 2005 assassination.

According to reports, the tribunal in question will be bringing to light the involvement of Syria and Iran in the plot. When Saad Hariri refused Hezbollah demands to cease cooperation with the tribunal, they walked away from the government.

Hezbollah has also been able to master enough support in the Lebanese parliament to have one of its own, Najib Mikati, forming the next government.

A take over of the Lebanese government by Hezbollah, a terrorist organization, is bad news for the attempt of the Lebanese people to move toward a more Western life style, also creating a potential for conflict with Israel. All in all a bad situation.

Many of the questions on the true significance of the events in the Arab world, including today’s story regarding the unrest just happening in Yemen, can only be answered by time. But it is clear that the fuse has been lit for some changes that may range from positive to disastrous.

Just my thoughts!